Have We Reached Peak Housing Demand? How To Manage Real Estate Risk

Have We Reached Peak Housing Demand? How To Manage Real Estate Risk

Demographic trends can be extremely interesting.  Demographic trends can influence a lot of things, they can impact voting and public policy, they can impact consumer trends, they can impact the consumption of goods and services.

The interesting thing about demographic trends is that they’re (somewhat) predictable. The way our population looks today will directly translate to how it looks in the future. Factors like immigration and advances in health care can change these trends slightly, but in general, the way people age is fairly predictable.

What is interesting about demographics is that as people age they do things differently, their behavior changes, their lifestyle changes, they consume different things.

Over the last 60+ years there have been two huge demographic waves, the first was the “baby boomers” and the second was their “echo”. These two groups are very noticeable when looking at population by age group. Demographic charts clearly show two huge population waves with troughs in-between.

Now, I’d like to preface this post with the fact that I hate predictions and forecasts. In my opinion, a good financial plan shouldn’t rely on predictions or forecasts to be successful. A good financial plan will prepare for various future events and still have a high chance of success. It’s important to anticipate possible risks and how they may impact a financial plan.

Typically, when we talk about risk we talk about investment risk and inflation rate risk. A good plan will still be successful even with changing investment returns and changing inflation rates. But what about real estate values? What about housing?

For two groups of people, the variability in real estate values should be a big concern when doing a financial plan. One group is real estate investors, people with rental properties that make up a large % of their assets. The second group is future downsizers, people who have made downsizing to a smaller home a key part of their future financial plan.

For these two groups of people it’s important to understand that real estate growth rates can vary and this creates risk. Simply assuming inflation, or inflation + xx%, is not a great strategy.

In this post we’ll look at how demographics may impact future housing demand and why a good financial plan should be prepared for different rates of real estate appreciation.

The Best Way To Invest Short Term

The Best Way To Invest Short Term

When planning to reach a financial goal, one very important aspect is the timeline. How much time do you have until you want to meet your goal? Is it 1-year, 3-years, 5-years, 10-years or maybe it’s a long-term goal like 25+ years.

Your timeline is a very important factor to consider. Your timeline is going to help inform decisions about how much risk you should be taking and the best way to invest.

One common mistake people make is that they make investment decisions without thinking about their timeline. They’re mostly focused on getting the highest return, making the most of their money, and not leaving anything on the table. But they don’t fully appreciate the short-term risk associated with a decision to “maximize returns”.

Over the long-term, taking on more risk can be a smart decision, but over the short-term that extra risk can cause some wild swings.

If you need access to money within a few years then you need to choose a good way to invest short-term.

Maybe it’s for a down payment, or maybe it’s to pay for post-secondary education, maybe it’s to pay for an expensive once-in-a-lifetime trip in retirement, or perhaps it’s a wedding gift for your daughter and soon to be son-in-law. Whatever the reason, if you need access to a large amount of cash within the next 3-5 years then you need a good short-term investment.

Best Way To Save Money For A House? Save Or Invest?

Best Way To Save Money For A House? Save Or Invest?

What is the best way to save money for a house? This is an interesting question and the old advice might require a new perspective given the reality of the current housing market. Home prices have changed dramatically over the last few years and this is impacting how people are making decisions around home ownership.

Over the last few years we’ve seen the average home price increase faster than our ability to save for a down payment. This can make it difficult to save money for a house and this can push home ownership to later stages in life.

This trend in home ownership has been happening for decades, with home ownership shifting later and later. This may be due to a number of factors but there is a definite trend towards purchasing a home later in life.

In 1981 approximately 55.5% of those who were over age 30 lived in their own home.

In 2016 approximately 50.2% of those who were over age 30 lived in their own home.

With the continued increase in home prices since 2016 it’s reasonable to assume that home ownership will continue to shift into the 30+ age group.

So if purchasing a home is happening later in life, does that change the way we save money for a house? Does that change the way we build up our down payment?

Conventional financial advice would suggest that any savings required in the next 1-5 years should be kept in something safe, like a GIC or a high-interest savings account. Historically this meant that savings for a down payment would go into one of these safe investment vehicles.

But what if someone is starting their career in their early 20’s and isn’t planning to purchase a home until their early 30’s, late-30’s or maybe even their 40’s? Should they still be saving for a down payment in a safe investment like a GIC?

Maybe, or maybe not. In this post we’ll explore a different way to save money for a house. A way that is perhaps more reflective of purchasing a home later in life.

Should You Consider Paying Off The Mortgage Early or Investing Instead?

Should You Consider Paying Off The Mortgage Early or Investing Instead?

Paying off the mortgage early can be a fantastic financial goal. In the last post, we looked at the different ways to pay off a mortgage early, how to make a mortgage payoff plan, and talked a little bit about the benefit of paying off the mortgage early.

In this post, we’re going to look at some considerations when deciding to pay off the mortgage early vs investing. This is a common dilemma for many people in Canada. Where should they put extra cash? Against the mortgage? Or in non-registered investments?

Generally, it’s better to invest inside an TFSA or RRSP before choosing to pay off the mortgage early. There is no annual tax impact when investing inside either of these two accounts. Investments can grow tax free. This can make it more attractive to invest inside an tax advantaged account before paying off the mortgage early. But not always…

RRSPs can be counterproductive at certain income levels and in certain situations. Investing inside an RRSP for someone expecting a very low income in retirement might not be the best use of those extra funds. They may experience large GIS claw backs on RRSP withdrawals in retirement. In those cases, it may make sense to pay off the mortgage early before maximizing RRSP contribution room.

As always, when making a financial decision, like paying off the mortgage early vs investing, it’s important to look at the whole financial picture and not just one aspect. If you’re struggling with this decision then it might be helpful to get a custom financial plan from an advice-only planner.

Deciding to pay off the mortgage or invest isn’t just about taxes and investment returns… there are also a bunch of soft benefits to consider. These aren’t pure financial benefits but they can still be “worth” a lot depending on how much you value them. Make sure you consider the financial benefit of paying off the mortgage early but also the soft benefits as well.

To decide between paying off the mortgage or investing we absolutely need to look at the after-tax rates of return. We’re going to assume that we’ve maximized our RRSP and TFSA contribution room already and are deciding between paying off the mortgage or investing in a non-registered investment account.

How To Pay Off The Mortgage Early

How To Pay Off The Mortgage Early

One of the largest purchases we’ll ever make in our lifetime is when we buy a home. It’s an exciting time but also very stressful financially. Along with this massive purchase comes an equally massive mortgage. This debt typically takes between 25 and 30 years to pay off but many people choose to pay off their mortgage early.

Paying off the mortgage early is an important financial goal. It’s a goal that is typically (and hopefully) achievable before reaching retirement age.

Paying off the mortgage early is a great medium-term goal, something achievable within 10-20 years (or even earlier if you’re really aggressive). Because it’s a medium-term goal this makes it very interesting as a financial goal. It can be very motivating to see progress against your mortgage each year.

Getting rid of the mortgage is a great feeling! It’s incredibly freeing to see those mortgage payments disappear. It’s also nice to know that you have the security of owning your home outright.

Paying off the mortgage early also removes a huge burden from a family’s monthly cash flow. This creates a lot of flexibility to make lifestyle changes, switch careers, take more time off from work, or even retire early.

There are different ways to pay off a mortgage early. Which method you choose will depend on your personal and financial goals. The important thing is to make a plan.

Making a mortgage payoff plan can be exciting. It’s amazing to see how those future payments can quickly reduce your mortgage. Making a plan is easy and we’ll show you a couple of examples using our free debt payoff tool.

Three Important Financial Factors To Consider When Buying Your First Home

Three Important Financial Factors To Consider When Buying Your First Home

It’s September and, along with the cool weather, that means the real estate market is back in full swing. Often buyers and sellers take a break during the summer, these months are filled with outdoor activities, BBQs and vacations, so this leaves little time to go house hunting.

But now that everyone is back into their regular routine the number of people actively looking for a new home starts to go back up.

When buying your first home there are a few important financial factors to consider. Not only will this be one of the biggest purchases of your life, but your home also drives a lot of on-going costs as well. These on-going costs can impact your budget for years to come.

Buying the wrong house might mean extra costs you didn’t anticipate or don’t have room for in your budget. This can mean years of financial pain and tight budgets.

Buying the right house means you’ll have lots of room in your budget to do all the things you love to do, travel, hobbies, restaurants etc.

When buying a house there are three very important financial factors to consider.

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